8K及以上:多少才算太多?

L去年，8K风靡一时. At the CES, NAB, 和IBC贸易展, a lot of the product and much of the chatter related to the impending 8K revolution. It's part and parcel of an industry built on technological advances and eager to leap on the Next Big Thing. This year too, CES featured 8K displays from Samsung, LG, Sharp, and more. 8K已成为这家电视供应商的最新旗舰产品.

Any discussion of 8K elicits enthusiasts bowled along by the possibilities of super-resolution and naysayers, 对他们来说4K太过分了. 当然，事实是介于两者之间的实用主义者. The tail is not wagging the dog—8K is unlikely to end up in a cul-de-sac like 3D TV—but the dog has its own ideas about how to use the technology.

The bald facts are that 8K TV is a micro-niche market now and will likely remain so for a decade, 也许很久以后. At the same time, the use of 8K as a production and delivery format is likely to grow. 在某个尚未确定的点上, the two will converge because the inevitable reduction in cost from all sides will make it so.

三星8K OLED

Samsung introduced its QLED 8K TV at CES 2019, and once again, 8K was the talk of CES 2020.

零相关

Globally, 4K UHD sets exceeded half of TV shipments for the first time in Q4 2018, 根据IHS Markit的数据. 在北美, around one-third of households own a UHD set; more than half will by 2021; and 64% will in 2023.

Western Europe will reach 46% of homes having a UHD set by 2023, a faster growth rate than China due to a more rapid TV replacement rate. 然而，中国将有1个.4 million homes with an 8K display this year, leading the world in adoption.

问题就在这里. 在中国没什么可看的. Instead, people are buying 8K TVs as a status symbol, in part because of the display's larger size.

世界上只有一个电视频道播放8K, 它在日本, where, 到了夏天, 62,000 people will be able to view NHK's coverage of the Tokyo Olympics in the 8K Super-Hi-Vision format. Impressive? 在一个拥有5000万居民的国家，这是不可能的.1%的人口将拥有原生8K能力).

"Japan lags significantly behind due to its preference for smaller screen sizes,Maria Rua Aguete说, IHS Markit的执行董事. "Only 19% of Japan households will own a UHD set in 2020, 32% by 2023. 尽管有超高清4K和8K广播, 到2023年，该国大部分地区将依赖高清和标清电视."

8K电视的安装基数很小. "There is zero correlation between content and product," says Rua Aguete. 换句话说, the industry can pump as many 8K screens as it likes into the ether, 但是广播公司并没有上钩.

A larger screen in the 65"-plus range is reckoned to deliver the best 8K viewing experience in the home, 世界范围内的尺寸也在逐渐增大. However, the logistics of delivery and install could limit sales.

包装成本, transporting, 运送一台75寸电视的成本是运送65寸电视的两倍, IHS Markit估计, not the least because it requires two people to maneuver it into the home.

而一半的美国人.K. households should have a 4K screen by 2022 (an adoption happening at a comparable rate to historic sales of HD), 分析师们对8K电视的普及率仍然非常谨慎, forecasting worldwide sales of 3 million by 2023 (of which just 625,000将在西欧).

“我们认为8K看起来像是一个过采样的显示器, 但SD不够高, 所以最佳点介于两者之间," IHS Markit Technology research and analysis director Paul Gray told a meeting of the U.K.去年10月，该公司收购了DTG集团.

Content producers may be unanimous in agreeing that High Dynamic Range (HDR) delivers a more significant visual punch than resolution, but this will take some time to catch on with a public groomed to believe that more pixels means better pixels.

“我们买6英寸的手机比买60英寸的电视要贵, 而且你用手机的时间更短,Frode Hernes说, SVP, 核心产品, at Vewd. “电视太便宜了，但生产起来非常复杂, and we expect them to have the same smoothness and quality of experience as a handset. 这是不现实的."

There is a lifeline for the TV manufacturing industry if it can innovate its way out of the current low-yield size-replacement cycle. 一个答案可能在于新形式因素，如可滚动, modular, or wallpaper displays that have been prototyped at recent CES shows.

屏幕地产

Beyond that, the function of the TV itself is being broadened to include AI, 语音控制, 以及智能家居控制功能.

The display would likely be large in order to accommodate multiple use cases within the screen real estate. 因为这个原因, 8K resolution would be useful less for full-screen viewing and more for the ability to watch, say, 在屏幕的一部分显示一个带有应用程序的4K节目
就像视频分享的另一部分. Other use cases could be instructional (video of Google Maps for road conditions, for instance).

Computer vision is driving picture quality enhancements and is one solution to getting content input at lower resolutions upscaled into 8K as screens enter the market. "We can use AI to dynamically examine content input in real time and improve it so you don't necessarily have to have rubbish in rubbish out,艾伦·德莱尼解释道, international business development and marketing director at TV-chip maker HiSilicon, to the DTG.

With such a limited addressable market in terms of displays and distribution outlets, there is no incentive for premium content producers to master programming in 8K at this time.